36% of the voters!

Oh noes!11!!

Holy crap.  What a great way to start the weekend.

I don't understand how Newsweek can diverge so significantly from Rasmussen/Gallup (which show a 2-4% lead lately).  I understand that they are different types of polls, but I still find the disparity bizarre.

Wow.

That is to good to soon. We want to peek in November not June. 51 -36 ! how do you improve on those numbers?

If we get more polls like this and this is not a fluke maybe it will discourage potential McCain donors. McCain is already disliked in his own party, even the funder behind the swiftboaters is not giving a penny this cycle.

I expect McSames flip flopping will likely get wilder and more desperate soon.

I find it difficult to give much credence to a national poll that has a sampling size of a little over 1000. That's 20 people per state on average. Of course, they would have polled more people per state in larger states, but that's still an awful small sample. Now if this were a single state poll it might be worth talking about. Then again, any poll 5 months before the election is hardly definitive.

I find national polling for a race tp 270 EVs that takes place on a state by state basis for EVs from each of those 50 individual contests to be pretty incongruous with the realities of the race.

That said, more like this could really damage Pappy McSame's ability to work up any momentum.  That's a good thing.  If he got too much momentum he could fall and break a hip.

if they are weighting for state. As pointed out above, that's only 20 ppl per state. How many 18-39 Registered Male Dems is that - per state?

This is a preference poll, not a voting poll.

Obama can win the popular vote and lose the election anyway. It would be ironic given how he "won" the nomination.

Obama is down in MI, FL & OH. Obama will crush McCain in CA and NY, but his extra votes there won't help him in the south where he will come close but won't win one southern state...unless he puts Hillary on the ticket, then he could win AR, FL, OH and the rest in a landslide.

Party ID within the poll is 53% Dem, 38% Repub.

That said,

1) Almost every poll taken in the last ~3 years shows a large Dem party identification advantage, and this translated into actual results in 2006.

2) The comments are trying to say that the AOL users' poll is more accurate just because it has 300,000 respondents?! Given the demographic of the average AOL user, are you serious?

Obama - 62% favorable to 26% unfavorable
McCain - 49% favorable to 37% unfavorable (A drop from 54 in last poll)
Clinton Supporters' view of Obama - 70% favorable to 18% unfavorable.

We need to pushback hard against the Obama smears and we need to keep making the case that John McCain is not a maverick and that he is Bush's third term.  Check out this link for how you can help spread this information throughout the blogosphere.

I think I read a post saying she's on a much needed vacation, or something to that effect.

Does anyone know what the 18% (who say they will vote McCain) equates to on an overall national percentage? If Obama and Clinton stand on stage and do joint speeches, the bounce will be huge.

I hate to be overly optimistic but things are looking good.

To those that complain that this poll is very different from other, and the small sampling size... I agree. But if it's going to deviate from other polls at least it's no the other direction.

It would make polls that diverge seriously from their kin easier to swallow, I personally have no doubt that this poll overrepresents Obama's support.